Ukraine Bulletin #8

April 4, 2007

Things are exciting in Ukraine these days. We are far from the action in Kiev, but there are nightly reports about gathering demonstrations there. This is a constitutional crisis and a power struggle (and many other things) all rolled into one. It is difficult to sort out fact from rumor.

Viktor Yushchenko, the president (elected in the Orange Revolution of 2004) has lost most of his power (and charisma). The Prime Minister (defeated in 2004) and the Rada (uni-cameral parliament) have out-maneuvered him all fall, passing laws stripping him of his powers. He has not gathered enough support in the Rada to block these moves. They don’t have enough votes to impeach him.

So he acted first. Claiming that their political maneuvers have been unconstitutional, he signed a decree to dissolve the Rada. They have continued to meet in the parliament building, as crowds gather outside.

The Rada has asked the Constiutional Court (roughly, our Supreme Court) to rule on the constitutionality of the president’s decree. They have been placed under a deadline (by the Rada?) of three days. They are disinclined to act. They have not ruled yet on the dozens of such cases filed by each side in the past 12 months or so.

Most telling is the reactions of the people we meet or no. Here, most support the Prime Minister, and are disdainful of (or bitterly disappointed in) the President. They do not believe that the poisoning of Yushchenko in 2004 was intentional, nor that it can be pinned on his opposition (or, ultimately, on the KGB and President Putin of Russia). They counter that it could have been a disease, like herpes, which appeared suddenly on his face. There are many such competing theories.

If any do believe he was poisoned by his political opponent, they do not say so aloud (at least here in Dnipropetrovsk).

The signing of the decree of dissolution of parliament stunned the adults we know. When they heard the news, their faces blanched. They are worried about military reprisals (or, reprisals by the internal police) if the demonstrations turn violent. They believe that provocateurs could pay others to begin violence, and that the violence would be used as a justification by one side or the other to impose martial law, or worse. So far, the military has said that it will act according to the Constitution, and that means they are loyal to the President as commander in chief. The Prime Minister and the Rada believe they are in control of the “internal affairs” police.

People we know here have stopped ignoring “those crazy politicians” in Kiev as they have for the past few months. Television aired an extraordinary overnight session of the Rada, and now, local and national channels, BBC and other news organizations are providing updates frequently on this fast-moving situation. The students were talking quite energetically in the hallways yesterday – most are opposed to Yushchenko and support the other Viktor (Yanukovich, the Prime Minister). The politician who stands to gain here is Julia Tymonenko, the charismatic blond with braids wrapped around her head. “They are fake. Everything about her is fake.” “But her hair is so beautiful.” “And that is the ONLY thing to admire.”

The new parliamentary election has been called for May 27. The Rada is mobilizing to call a presidential election. To do this, they need to impeach Yushchenko, find him incapable of leading by reason of health, or, for Yushchenko to resign. They cannot impeach him if they are dissolved.

So, that is the update from here. I hope you are well, and enjoying the melt.

Linda